An analysis of the impact of economic diplomacy on Namibia’s international trade relations with China

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of economic diplomacy on Namibia's international trade relations with China. Employing a qualitative exploratory research design grounded in critical realist philosophy with a deductive approach, the study conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with 21 key informants from Namibia's economic diplomacy ecosystem, including government officials, academics, private sector representatives, and civil society actors. Purposive sampling ensured participant selection based on expertise and direct involvement. Thematic analysis identified patterns and emergent themes. Findings reveal a significant evolution in Namibia-China relations, shifting from historical solidarity to pragmatic economic engagement. Key milestones include Namibia's inclusion in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and participation in the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). Economic diplomacy profoundly influences Namibia's trade policies and agreements, sometimes leading to policy adaptations aligning with Chinese approaches like Special Economic Zones. However, concerns exist about policy space being shaped externally rather than serving national development needs. Diplomatic efforts have facilitated increased trade volumes and Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), particularly in mining, fisheries, and infrastructure sectors. However, trade structure remains concentrated in raw material exports with limited value addition, perpetuating structural asymmetries and concerns about limited skills transfer and local content. Key challenges include significant limitations in Namibia's institutional capacity and expertise for effective negotiation, poor coordination among domestic stakeholders, insufficient inclusion of the private sector, academia, and civil society in diplomatic processes, lack of transparency in agreements, and persistent implementation gaps. Global geopolitical dynamics, such as US-China tensions, add further complexity requiring careful navigation. Strategic recommendations emphasize strengthening domestic capacity and coordination, focusing on value addition and diversification, institutionalising stakeholder engagement, enhancing transparency, and improving agreement monitoring and implementation. While economic diplomacy has yielded measurable gains in trade and investment flows, it has largely fallen short of catalysing transformative developmental outcomes for Namibia.